Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
